Receipts First
2026-07-27 · this week's calls, with the running record attached
Scorecard (all published tickers)
Market-adjusted directional calls: 52% correct — 42 hits, 39 misses; 95% confidence interval 41%–62%; no-edge baseline 50%. 321 unattributable claims voided, not scored.
The sample is still small. Every claim was published before its result window and scored against real returns. Nothing is graded after the fact.
Current read by horizon
| RHM | Defense & rearmament | no live claims |
| ASML | Semiconductors | no live claims |
| CEG | Nuclear & power | no live claims |
| CCJ | Nuclear & power | no live claims |
| MP | Critical materials | no live claims |
| FCX | Critical materials | 1w ↓ |
| NTR | Agriculture | 1w → |
| ZIM | Shipping & trade | 1w → |
| SLV | Precious metals | no live claims |
| AMD | Extended coverage | 1m → |
| AMZN | Extended coverage | 3m ↓ |
| AVGO | Extended coverage | 6m ↑ |
| CAT | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| CB | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| COST | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| CVX | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| DE | Extended coverage | 1w → |
| GOOGL | Extended coverage | 1w ↓ |
| GS | Extended coverage | 3m ↓ |
| JPM | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| LLY | Extended coverage | 1m ↓ |
| META | Extended coverage | 1w ↓ |
| MRVL | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| MSFT | Extended coverage | 1w ↓ |
| NEE | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| NVDA | Extended coverage | 1w ↑ |
| QBTS | Extended coverage | 1w ↓ |
| SPCX | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| UNH | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| WMT | Extended coverage | no live claims |
| XOM | Extended coverage | no live claims |
↑ long · ↓ short · ↕ split — read with "already priced in?" · → range-bound
Dated events this week
- 2026-07-28 · ASML: ASML ex-dividend date ($2.15/sh, declared)
- 2026-07-29 · AMD: FOMC monetary policy decision
- 2026-07-29 · AMZN: FOMC monetary policy decision
- 2026-07-29 · ASML: FOMC monetary policy decision
- 2026-07-29 · AVGO: FOMC monetary policy decision
- 2026-07-29 · CAT: FOMC July 2026 policy decision sets the rate path affecting equipment financing costs and construction demand.
- 2026-07-29 · CB: FOMC interest rate decision on July 29, 2026 sets the trajectory for Chubb's fixed-income reinvestment yields.
- 2026-07-29 · CCJ: Federal Reserve FOMC rate decision affecting real rates and long-duration commodity equity valuations.
- 2026-07-29 · CEG: FOMC monetary policy decision
- 2026-07-29 · COST: July FOMC interest rate decision and policy guidance.
Not investment advice. Informational only. Published on a deliberate delay; every item keeps its original "as of" date.