Each thesis enters the ledger with a creation timestamp and a fixed horizon of 1 week, 1 month, 3 months or 6 months. Its resolution window begins at commit time. The ledger keeps the original wording permanently; resolved claims are never reworded, re-dated or removed.
Directional claims are scored using market-adjusted return: the realized stock return minus beta multiplied by SPY's return over the same window. Beta is calculated from roughly 120 trading days of prior daily returns. A LONG claim is a HIT above +2%, a MISS below −2%, and PARTIAL inside the band between them. Short claims are scored in the opposite direction.
Range-bound claims are scored against the stock's own volatility. The band is 0.674·σ·√t, the median expected move. This gives a no-skill range-bound caller a long-run hit rate of about 50%, matching the baseline used for directional claims.
Catalyst scenarios are logged as explicit branches, such as “if X, then up” and “if Y, then down.” Once the event resolves, only the branch whose condition occurred is scored. Every other branch is marked VOID and excluded from the statistics. A dead branch is neither a hit nor a miss.
Hits, misses, partials, voids and pending claims all remain visible in the ledger. No resolved claim is unpublished.
Headline accuracy is always shown with a 95% Wilson confidence interval. Every claim also includes an explicit probability of scoring a HIT under these rules. Those probabilities are graded using a Brier score against the 0.25 no-edge baseline, which penalizes overconfidence quadratically.
Each research cycle feeds the resolved scorecard back into the model, including directional accuracy by setup, calibration of stated probabilities and recurring biases. The misses remain public and also become input for the next cycle.
Driver. A force the system tracks for a stock, such as a commodity, policy cycle or supply-chain link. Every driver has a permanent snake_case id, such as pc_insurance_pricing_cycle.
Activation. The driver's current score, from −10 for a strong negative push to +10 for a strong positive push. It combines the standing baseline with recent news pressure and is capped at ±10.
News pressure. The combined effect of recent headlines linked to a driver. Each event is weighted by its size and confidence, then fades with a seven-day half-life so old news gradually stops counting.
Baseline. The driver's standing influence before this week's news is added.
Tripwire. The daily news check. When news pressure on a driver moves sharply, the system can re-run the thesis before the next Monday cycle.
Escalation. A tripwire alert strong enough to trigger that off-cycle review.
Catalyst window. A dated event, such as earnings or a policy decision, with scenarios published before the event happens.
Priced in. The market may already have moved to reflect the thesis. A correct idea that reached the price before the call can still score as a miss.
The ledger is not yet large enough for a headline accuracy number to prove much. Until there are hundreds of resolved claims, the honest way to read the results is to look at the confidence interval as well as the point estimate. That is why both are shown.